Fortnite Treasure Drop Rates: Every Reward, Ranked by Rarity
One place for every published number. Sort the master table, read the grouped tables when you want context, and check the update log before trusting a figure someone screenshotted last week.
Quick Answer
That gap — 1.56 million versus 127 — is the whole story of this page. One is a lottery ticket, the other is something you will trip over in a normal week. Reading the table without noticing the spread is how people waste a week chasing the wrong tier.
All Drop Rates
Three groups, same source. All chances are per chest opened in public Battle Royale or Zero Build.
Outfit and token
| Reward | Chance | Chests to 50% | Repeatable | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly gold outfit | 1 / 1,562,500 | ~1,083,000 | No | Official |
| Pirate Shop Access | 1 / 137,500 | ~95,300 | No | Official |
Cosmetics
| Reward | Chance | Chests to 50% | Repeatable | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly vehicle & decal | 1 / 7,813 | ~5,420 | No | Official |
| Weekly pickaxe or back bling | 1 / 568 | ~394 | No | Official |
| Weekly Jam Track | 1 / 391 | ~271 | No | Official |
| Weekly loading screen | 1 / 272 | ~189 | No | Official |
Utility
| Reward | Chance | Chests to 50% | Repeatable | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gizmo (any of five) | 1 / 127 | ~88 | Yes | Official |
Rarest to Most Common
The shareable table. Sorted rarest first by default; click Chance to flip it. Boosted rows are listed separately so nothing gets averaged into a number nobody can defend.
| Reward ▼ | Tier ▼ | Chance (1 in X) ▼ | Window ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly gold outfit | Mythic | 1,562,500 | Normal play |
| Weekly gold outfit (7.5×) | Mythic | 208,333 | Treasure Hours |
| Weekly gold outfit (10×) | Mythic | 156,250 | Treasure Hours |
| Pirate Shop Access | Legendary | 137,500 | Normal play |
| Pirate Shop Access (2×) | Legendary | 68,750 | Treasure Hours |
| Weekly vehicle & decal | Epic | 7,813 | Normal play |
| Weekly vehicle & decal (10×) | Epic | 781 | Treasure Hours |
| Weekly pickaxe / back bling | Epic | 568 | Normal play |
| Weekly Jam Track | Rare | 391 | Normal play |
| Weekly loading screen | Rare | 272 | Normal play |
| Gizmo (any) | Common | 127 | Normal play |
Sorted by chance, not by value. A rarer drop is not automatically worth chasing — run the numbers on the expected-time calculator first.
How to Read These Numbers
Expected chests = the denominator (the X in 1/X). Expected matches = expected chests ÷ chests per match. Expected hours = matches × minutes per match ÷ 60.
Every page here uses the same formula, so the numbers are comparable. If another site quotes a different expected time for the same rate, they are using a different chests-per-match assumption, not different data.
A 1 in 137,500 drop does not mean 137,500 chests guarantee one. It means roughly one in 137,500 is a hit across a large sample. Open 137,500 chests and you have about a 63% chance of seeing at least one — and a 37% chance of seeing none.
There is no pity counter in Treasure Hunters. Past failures do not improve the next roll, which is why "I'm due" is a feeling, not a probability.
Two rules from Epic shape every table here: rates are constant all day, every day, except during Treasure Hours; and once you own a weekly item it stops dropping for you, with Gizmos as the only exception.
Sources and Update Log
-
Replaced every community estimate with Epic's official rates (Nov 8). Added the boosted Treasure Hours rows as separate entries instead of a single blended number. Also corrected the weekly schedule: the reward pool rotates on Sunday (Captain's Day), while Treasure Hours stay on Saturday.
-
Epic published the full Treasure Hunters table after player pushback: gold outfit 1 in 1,562,500, Pirate Shop Access 1 in 137,500, and stated that rates had been constant since launch. The widely shared 1 in 700,000 figure was an unsourced rumour about the Pirate Shop Access token — never a rate published for the gold outfit.
-
Week 1 pool retired (A$AP Rocky set) and week 2 went live (Lil Uzi Vert set). The Saturday Treasure Hours windows ran with 1.5×/2× token and 7.5×/10× outfit boosts.
-
Treasure Hunters mini-season launched on Crossbones Isle. First published version of this page used community estimates and was labelled as such.
Method summary
Official rates from Epic via Fortnite Status (November 8, 2026). Boosted windows from the same announcement, reconciled against TimeSaver's tracker (checked ). Derived columns — chests to 50%, expected hours — are our calculations, and the formula is published above so they can be reproduced.
FAQ
1 in 1,562,500 per chest, published by Epic on November 8, 2026. During the best Treasure Hours window it was boosted 10× to 1 in 156,250.
The weekly gold outfit, by a wide margin: the next rarest tier is Pirate Shop Access at 1 in 137,500, about eleven times more likely.
No. Epic publishes one rate per reward, and every chest type — standard, rare, sprite, buried, wanted poster, relic and pirate — rolls the same pool. The chest rewards page breaks down which chests count.
Only the weekly items change on Sunday, on Captain's Day. The rates themselves have not moved since November 1, and Epic confirmed there is no hidden hourly adjustment. Treasure Hours are the only planned variation.